Transformations in the “Axis of Resistance”: Dismantling Iranian Influence in Syria: Factors and Consequences.

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the phenomenon of the dismantling of Iranian power in Syria, offering a comprehensive methodology and an in-depth analysis of the key factors that contributed to the erosion of Iranian influence and its impact on the strategic landscape of the Middle East. The study focuses on the factors of decline and their consequences within the context of the "Axis of Resistance," spanning from the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in January 2020 to the events of October 7, 2023, and beyond, particularly after Hezbollah's military weakening, which was a major factor in the decline of Iranian influence in Syria. The research also addresses the realignment of power balances and the increased influence of other international and regional powers in the region. The study employs a qualitative analytical methodology, combining literature reviews, previous studies, analysis of official documents and policies, and leveraging available international reports and statistical data. The findings suggest that the dismantling of Iranian power in Syria was not due to a single factor but rather a complex interplay of internal factors, such as poor coordination among Iranian militias and the weakening of Hezbollah's military strength, shifts in Iranian domestic policies, and external factors like international sanctions and regional interventions that reshaped the balance of power. This disintegration is expected to have significant strategic consequences, most notably the realignment of regional alliances, the undermining of stability in the "Axis of Resistance" area, and a gap in financial and military support for Iran's loyal factions in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. The research concludes by offering policy recommendations aimed at enhancing regional stability through a reevaluation of diplomatic and military strategies and the guidance of economic policies.