Foresight on the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Modern Warfare: A Futures Study Using the Scenario Method (2025–2040)

Abstract

This study aims to forecast AI's impact on modern warfare over 2025–2040, analyzing military transformations and constructing future scenarios. Centered on how military AI applications affect armed conflict, it adopts a forward-looking approach, identifying key drivers: major-power competition, rapid algorithm development, rising AI spending, autonomous weapons legislation, ethical-legal considerations, and doctrinal integration capabilities. It examines AI's effects on power structures, command/control, intelligence, reconnaissance, cyber warfare, and associated legal-ethical challenges, drawing on practical indicators from contemporary conflicts, specialized international reports, and ongoing programs in the US, China, and NATO.

The study concludes AI is evolving from a support tool to a decisive factor in military effectiveness and strategic competitiveness, impacting power dynamics, decision-making speed, operational management, and cyber deterrence. Three scenarios emerge: widespread autonomous systems with significantly diminished human roles; continued technological development within legal frameworks preserving human decision-making centrality; and an escalating algorithmic arms race with heightened cyber vulnerabilities and autonomous weapons risks. The analysis suggests the second, controlled-development scenario is most probable for 2025–2040, given sustained AI investment alongside growing governance and oversight efforts.

Ultimately, warfare's future hinges not just on possessing advanced technologies, but on states' capacity to deploy them within coherent institutional, legal, and ethical frameworks to ensure military effectiveness while preserving strategic stability.