The War on Iran Through the Lens of Offensive Realism by John Mearsheimer

Abstract

Samuel Huntington’s clash of civilizations theory is evident in the ongoing American-Israeli war against Iran. Huntington argued that the West, facing declining influence, would resist through tactics rather than cultural hegemony. He emphasized “modernization” over “Westernization” and predicted an alliance between Islamic and Chinese civilizations against the West—reflected today in Chinese-Iranian cooperation. He also foresaw a cultural war between China and the US. Washington views Iran as a means to hinder China’s rise, given Iranian oil’s importance to the Chinese economy. China adopts defensive realism, seeking multipolarity, while the US pursues offensive realism, aiming for absolute hegemony. The war also involves regional rivalry between Israel and Iran, with Israel again serving US interests as it did during the Cold War. The conflict has expanded to include Gulf states, Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen, and potentially the Horn of Africa. John Mearsheimer’s offensive neorealism complements Huntington’s view: rising powers threaten dominant ones, prompting efforts to preserve unipolarity. The convergence of these frameworks is clear in the war on Iran, whose outcome may shape the future international order. The paper concludes that Washington acts offensively to disrupt Iranian oil and China’s Silk Road access, while Beijing responds defensively to preserve its gains and challenge US hegemony.