Donald Trump and Possible Scenarios for the Middle East in Light of the Ongoing Tensions

Abstract

Developments in the Middle East after October 7, 2024 led to Israel launching a ground invasion of Gaza, the first of its kind since the disengagement in 2005, known in Arabic as the Withdrawal Law. Israel also destroyed the military and civilian infrastructure and leadership cadres of both Hamas and Hezbollah in both Gaza and southern Lebanon. Isreal practiced policies described by the International Criminal Court as war crimes against the Israeli Prime Minister and his Defense Minister Galant. These escalating tensions coincide with the announcement of the victory of Republican US President Donald Trump for a second term after he ended his first term in 2020. Trump's choice of a presidential team that supports Israel's irresponsible behavior in the Middle East region and his team members demanding Israel to put an end  as soon as possible so that the United States can devote itself to China. The Trump administration’s foreign policy is seen as an isolationist ideology that has radically reversed American global leadership in a matter of years. In the Middle East, critics have described the Trump Doctrine as a more rapid surrender of the American hegemony that has defined the regional order since the 1980s. This diminished involvement predates the Trump Doctrine. It stems not from any ideological shift, or the financial and military exhaustion of a superpower at its peak, but rather from a structural dynamic: The Middle East no longer generates credible threats to the United States. Whereas in the past, alarming fears of communism and energy insecurity drove Washington’s regional vision, today the perceived enemies of U.S. interests—radical Islam and Iran—pose no threat to merican political institutions and economic well-being. Absent a catastrophic terrorist attack, the United States will continue to shed its hegemonic mantle, moving away from overt intervention and continuing to pursue a logic of coercive hegemony over a region of diminishing importance. This potential situation thus necessitates a reassessment of the Middle East’s security environment from multiple perspectives. Given the new dynamics created by the current conflict, the region is likely to face the following scenarios in the coming years.